Immigrants, Foreign Workers and Bilateral Trade: Evidence from Türkiye

This study scrutinizes distinctively the impact of immigrants and foreign workers on Türkiye's bilateral trade with their countries of origin. For this purpose, we use data related to the total migration stock of the country and the foreign workers in Turkish firms from 2015 to 2021. Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation results indicate a positive association between migration and trade in Türkiye in line with previous studies. The results show that a 10% growth in the immigrant stock from a country contributes to Türkiye's exports to that country by 1.8% and imports from that country by 1.4%. These effects are 1.6% and 2.4%, respectively, in the case of foreign workers per se. The findings partially confirm that the trade facilitating effects of foreign workers, which are assumed to be more qualified than the average in terms of education, skill, and experience, are larger than all immigrants. To put it differently, immigrants generally improve Türkiye's exports more than skilled immigrants who increase its imports less than immigrants overall.