Addressing Program Sustainability: A Time Series Analysis of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in the US

Food stamps, or, more formally, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), form a crucial support system for many individuals in the United States. The welfare benefit has been associated with improved nutritional outcomes, making it an effective strategy to address hunger. Additionally, it has been found to enhance labour market outcomes for recipients and contribute to higher birth weights among children born to SNAP recipient mothers. Furthermore, it has been linked to improved height and overall health outcomes. Overall, this benefit is a crucial resource during times of need and helps mitigate the adverse effects of economic fluctuations. Even with the manifold advantages of the program, there exist notable apprehensions about the program's long-term viability. SNAP has experienced significant expansion over more than 50 years. The recipients grew more than 14 times, from approximately 2.9 million individuals in 1969 to over 41 million in 2022. This study utilizes data from the United States Department of Agriculture to investigate the temporal characteristics of this massive expansion. Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests are performed with and without trend and optimally selected lag lengths. In all specifications, the presence of a unit root cannot be rejected. An overwhelming body of evidence suggests that the growth in SNAP beneficiaries may need to be revised. Results of the unit root tests provide credence to the argument that the historical growth rate in the number of SNAP beneficiaries is highly unpredictable and may pose significant challenges to policymakers. This study does not attempt to calculate fraud and abuse in the program. Neither does the study attempt to ascertain the number of beneficiaries that may not be worthy of receiving the benefits.