FORECASTING THE URBAN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SYSTEM

ABSTRACT Forecasting the urban electricity supply system is a critical task for effective energy planning and management. It involves predicting future electricity demand and supply in a city or region, considering factors such as weather, economic activity, population growth, consumer behavior, and electricity infrastructure. Accurate forecasting helps optimize electricity generation, transmission, and distribution processes, thereby reducing the environmental and economic impacts of electricity consumption. The urban electricity supply system comprises various components such as generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption. These components are influenced by multiple factors including weather conditions, load demands, pricing policies, and technological advancements. Thus, forecasting the urban electricity supply system is a challenging yet vital task for power system planning and operations. Forecasting methods can be divided into two main aspects: electricity demand forecasting and electricity generation forecasting. Electricity demand forecasting predicts future electricity consumption across different customer segments, such as residential, commercial, and industrial users. Electricity generation forecasting predicts future electricity production from various sources including fossil fuels, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and biomass. The primary objectives of forecasting the urban electricity supply system are to ensure reliability, security, and efficiency of the power system, optimize resource allocation, reduce operational costs and environmental impacts, and support decision-making and policy development processes.