Human Capital and Income Decline: Evidence from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey 2019-2022

Human capital is widely regarded as a fundamental driver of economic growth, at least in the innovative and knowledge-based economy. However, the empirical evidence linking human capital with economic outcomes has been problematic both at macroeconomic and microeconomic levels. The estimates obtained in this study, based on RLMS data, show that the conditional probability of a worsening financial situation for people with higher education increased significantly in 2020 and 2022 compared to 2019. Using logit analysis, we calculated the odds ratios for worsening finances for three groups: currently employed versus not employed, reported poor health versus good health, and with tertiary education versus no tertiary education. Individuals with poor health are 20 % more likely to experience a decline in income than those in good health, but worryingly, after 2020 those with tertiary education are also about 1.2 times more likely to experience a decline in income than those with secondary education or less. It does not cast doubt on the positive impact of human capital on the knowledge-based economy. But it raises the question to what extent the characteristics of the knowledge-based economy are maintained during crises. The other question is the extent to which tertiary education today meets the expectations of the labour market and whether the education system has the foresight to ensure a high return on investment in human capital.