Development of a prognostic scale for assessing the risk of cervicitis based on extracellular microscopy data in Pap tests

Relevance. Cervicitis remains a major health problem worldwide with a global prevalence ranging from 20% to 40% among women attending reproductive health clinics. In Russia, this disease affects approximately 15% to 30% of women of reproductive age. It’s a significant problem requiring a revision of existing medical screening protocols for this population. The high prevalence of cervicitis indicates the need for a more systematic approach to diagnosis and treatment to reduce incidence and prevent possible complications. Materials and Methods. We analyzed data from 2991 studies from the archive of the Laboratory Diagnostics Center of the Medical Complex of the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok for the period 2014–2023. Data analysis included statistical processing, searching for correlation dependencies between numerical and categorical indicators, and building a logistic regression model. The data were checked and validated on a test sample to ensure the representativeness of the results and their application in clinical practice. Results and Discussion. During the study, a mathematical predictive model of logistic regression was developed in the form of a scale for preliminary assessment of the presence of inflammatory processes in the cervix based on parameters including the presence of mucus and key cells, as well as the calculated indicator of the total microbiota. The resulting model demonstrated moderate accuracy in recognizing cervicitis (AUC = 72%), allowing it to be effectively used in practice for the early diagnosis of cervicitis. Conclusion. Mathematical analysis of extracellular elements data can be used as a diagnostic tool to assess the presence of changes associated with an increased risk of cervical inflammation. The use of this scale in clinical practice can significantly improve the quality of diagnosis and treatment of cervicitis, helping to reduce morbidity and improve women’s reproductive health.