The Arithmetic of Academic Integrity: Story of One Ethics Committee

In the evolving global landscape of higher education, national quality assurance agencies are increasingly required to move beyond conceptual mandates toward establishing robust, transparent mechanisms for addressing academic misconduct. In Ukraine, this transition is exemplified by the operational journey of the National Agency for Higher Education Quality Assurance (NAQA) and its Ethics Committee. This study addresses the critical absence of standardized quantitative frameworks for measuring the effectiveness of integrity-related governance. It aims to identify the systemic bottlenecks and behavioral dynamics, particularly judicial resistance, that impede the processing of academic integrity complaints. The research develops an original “arithmetic” model, utilizing a Markov graph to map the transition probabilities of a complaint from its initial public appearance to a final ministerial order. The derivation of integrated meta-indices complements this methodology to evaluate system-wide resilience across “fast” and “slow” scenarios. The findings reveal that the “slow” scenario, characterized by significant “procedural sabotage”, fundamentally alters the state-transition dynamics of the model, lowering the probability of reaching a final decision. These meta-indices quantitatively demonstrate how judicial pressure and procedural vulnerabilities create a “filtering” effect that separates public resonance from real administrative consequences. Furthermore, the analysis identifies 33 specific legal strategies that act as “irritating factors”, significantly increasing the institutional friction measured by the resistance indices. The integration of Markov modeling and meta-indices provides a high-level diagnostic tool for policymakers to identify regulatory gaps and enhance the legal resilience of integrity systems. By “technologizing” these procedures and closing identified loopholes, national agencies can more effectively transition toward evidence-based governance that secures public trust in academic qualifications.