Roadmap for top managers from descriptive statistics to causal management
Journal: Herald of the Economic Sciences of Ukraine (Vol.49, No. 2)Publication Date: 2025-12-29
Authors : Tkachenko A. M.; Chornyi R. S.;
Page : 180-190
Keywords : causal management; causal DAGs; DiD (difference-in-ifferences); SCM (synthetic control); IV (instrumental variables); RDD (regression discontinuity); CATE (conditional average treatment effect); EPV (expected profit value);
Abstract
Over the past decade, corporate analytics systems have rapidly evolved from manual reporting to scalable business intelligence platforms with advanced dashboards, as well as predictive and recommendation models. As a result, a significant portion of management decisions continue to rely on correlations that rarely answer the key question: what will happen if we intervene and modify pricing policy, inventory levels, technology, training programmes, marketing communications, or institutional rules? The lack of an operational bridge between ‘description/forecast' and “causality” creates systemic risks: false attributions, scaling of ‘false victories,' overconfidence in short-term correlations, and chronic underinvestment in interventions with high expected value but with a weak historical track record in the data. Therefore, there is a growing need for a roadmap that moves the firm from a ‘watch and guess' mode to a mode of managed causality.
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