Determining The Impact Of Trade Liberalization On Annual Export Trade In Nigeria Using The Time Series Analysis

ABSTRACT This study examined the impact of trade liberalization on annual export trade in Nigeria using Time Series Analysis. The objective of this study is to determine the trend of annual export in Nigeria to ascertain the best model that best describes the behavior of annual export trade in Nigeria and to determine the level of association between import restriction and export promotion in Nigeria. The source of data employed in this study is secondary data obtained from the Central bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin 2010. The statistical tools used include the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test curve estimation analysis and the S-Curve trend analysis. The result of the analysis showed that the behavior of annual Export in Nigeria over the observed period has unit root with a t-test statistic values of -1.6951 and a p-value of 0.7133 which falls on the acceptance region of the hypothesis assuming a 95 confidence level. Also it was denoted that the model which fits best on estimating annual Export in Nigeria given Year is the S-Curve model with a coefficient of determination value of 93.8. This result implies that the observed period Year was able to explain about 93.8 behavior of annual export in Nigeria. The trend of annual export was found to be steeply increasing from the year 2003 which could be attributed to stability of democracy in Nigeria. It was revealed that there is a strong association between import restriction and export promotion in Nigeria.