THE EFFECT OF EMIGRATION IN POPULATION STRUCTURE,CBR, IN NATURAL INCREASE OF POPULATION OF KOPLIK

This study is done in the Koplik Municipality. It is built a database for 20000 inhabitants of Koplik Municipality where it is included the year of birth, the year of marriage and the year of death. From this database are taken datas, that are used to built the population pyramid. It is concluded, a rapid increase of age of population. The mean age of population has increased from 27.79±19.75 in 1990 year to 35.13±20.83 in 2013 year.The natyral increase has obvious decrease for period, 1990-1999,(KPRN= 1,754±0.202)to period 2000-2013(KPRN = 0.642±0.842).All that has concluded in negative natural increase -1.76 in 2013 year and also in 2014 year. The main factor that has caused this situation, it is a drastic change of CBR, that is obvious in period 1990-1999(CBR= 23.272±2.5),compared with the period 2000-2013(CBR=12.824±4.94), concluded with drastic increase about 2.7,in 2013 year. The decrease of CBR, is especially caused from decrease number of female and male in reproduction age, caused mainly from emigration ,associated from decrease in TFR-value (3.2845±0.328,in period 1990-1999 to 2.884714±0.589 in period 2000-2013),in conditions of almost constant mortality (. 5.617995±1.82 in period 1990-2000 to 5.276±1.476 in period 2000-2013). The reduction of % individuals in reproduction age,is a direct result of mass emigration of new generation 15-20 years old especially ,after 1997 year and ongoing. The negative effect in family structure,is result of the fact that most of emigrants are male,that has caused not balanced sex-ratio,the last few years,about 0.99 for all population,and 0.89 for reproduction age 20-40 years old.The reduction of population has reduced the density of population and expected to have positive impact in enviroment.