PERT AND LOB SIMPLIFIED INTEGRATED MODEL FOR DETERMINING PROBABILISTIC SCHEDULING OF REPETITIVE PROJECTS

In a construction project environment there is always a risk or chance that adverse conditions could occur, which may cause the project to fail, or couldn’t meet its planned objectives. The importance of planning and time scheduling has emerged in the last decade and it becomes an essential step for any construction project to reduce this risk. The project schedule should reflect all of the work associated with delivering the project on time. Without a full and complete schedule, the project manager will be unable to communicate the complete effort, in terms of cost and resources, necessary to deliver the project. Most current methods of time schedules and estimating have been converted to software programs in order to be easy to be used by planners and to avoid manual mistakes. Presently, experts in the fields of time planning are searching for better software they can depend on, that is more powerful, easier and serves different kinds of projects. This paper develops software that is essential for improving time planning and estimating for projects that repeat linearly and focuses on features of PERT and LOB for calculating expected completion probability of any repetitive construction project within a specified end date. The software is designed by EXCEL spreadsheet system to provide the factors that affect projects end date probability. At the end, illustrative cases of study are presented to validate and verify the proposed software.