Warning time analysis for emergency response in Sakarya city, Turkey against possible Marmara earthquake

Sakarya, one of the biggest cities in the Marmara prefecture, with 835 thousand population has suffered severe damages due to the North Anatolian Fault System (NAFS) which is a major active right lateral-moving fault in northern Anatolia running along the tectonic boundary between the Eurasian Plate and the Anatolian Plate. One of the biggest disasters was on 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake with Mw 7.4. The occurrence and the source information of huge events in the region indicate that an earthquake is expecting in near future from the underneath of the Marmara Sea. Therefore, this seismically vulnerable city needs urgent strong motion prediction and reliable Earthquake Early Warning System. The city is preparing now for further NAFS earthquakes and it is essential to inform society about the warning time of a possible imminent earthquake so that precautionary actions can be taken by the government officials, companies and individuals. This study highlights available warning time for the city. Warning time is calculated by considering the theoretic P- and S- wave velocities for Marmara region. Results indicate that Sakarya will have approximately 37.9 second in average with 7.4 second standard deviation before the arrival of strong shaking to the city.