Prediction of Spare Parts Demand Based on Improved Grey Markov Model

Combining of the characteristics of grey prediction and Markov theory, an improved Grey Markov model is proposed, the sequence is disposed with moving average. The change trends system is fitted with unbiased GM (1,1) model, and thereby Markov prediction is done. During the prediction process, the original data are constantly updated. The result shows that, compared with the general grey prediction model, the prediction accuracy has been greatly improved, especially on medium-term and long-term prediction.