HOW DOES THE RUSSIAN FERTILITY STIMULATION PROGRAM AFFECT BIRTH SPACING? EVIDENCE FROM RLMS

The matter of the Maternity capital program effectiveness is still arguable. Among demographers, it is widely believed that monetary stimulation of birth rate simply shifts the birth calendar and does not increase the net fertility rate. However, this prediction is only hypothesis and it was not tested before. In my research, I test the prediction, that that program affects the inter-birth interval. My analysis confirmed this hypothesis, and showed that women without higher education indeed shorten the interval between births. The birth interval in this group is shortened, on average, by 4.6 months. At the same time, women with a higher education are not affected. This result reveals drawback of fertility stimulation program and point out that the less educated women are more sensitive to finance stimulus therefore population growth, which is made under that fertility stimulation program, may be rather extensive than intensive.