FORECASTING EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF ROAD ACCIDENTS: A SPECIAL EMPHASIZE ON MORTALITY RATES IN TIRUCHIRAPPALLI DISTRICT

Road traffic deaths are a major one but neglected public health challenge that requires concerted efforts for effective and sustainable prevention. Of all the systems with which people have to deal every day in road traffic systems are the most complex and the most dangerous. In Worldwide estimation 1.2 million people are died in road crashes each year and as many as 50 million are injured. Projections indicate that these figures will be increase by about 65% over the next 20 years, unless there are new commitments to prevent the road accidents. Nevertheless, the tragedy behind these figures attracts less attention of media than other, and considered as frequent types of tragedy. This paper deals with an attempt has been made in Tiruchirappalli District, to forecast Road Accident Mortality Rates (RAMR) such as Accident Severity Rate (ASR), Accident Fatality Rate (AFR) and Accident Risk Rate (ARR) by using statistical time-series modeling technique ? Exponential trend.