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ANALYSIS OF SIR EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELOF INFLUENZA: INSIGHTS INTO THE FUTURE OF H1N1

Journal: International Journal OF Engineering Sciences & Management Research (Vol.3, No. 3)

Publication Date:

Authors : ;

Page : 21-24

Keywords : Influenza; Epidemic; Pandemic; Reproduction number; Cross - species;

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Abstract

Review of the literature of influenza modeling studies and discussed how these models can provide insights into the future of the currently circulating novel strain of influenza A (H1N1), earlier known as swine flu. The fact how the feasibility of controlling an epidemic critically depends on the value of basic reproduction number , have been discussed. The for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6, which is below the values of estimated for the year 1918 - 19 pandemic strain(mean , range 1.4 to 2.8) and is comparable to values estimated for seasonal strain(mean , range 0.9 to 2.1). A recent modeling study has shown a global cooperative strategy is essential in order to control a pandemic. It is also been shown that by modeling cross - species transmission it may be possible to predict the emergency of pandemic strains of influenz a

Last modified: 2016-03-02 22:55:34