CONTEMPORARY MATHEMATICAL TOOLS OF FORECASTING: OVERVIEW OF METROPOLIS HASTINGS ALGORITHMS

This paper used the Metropolis Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to forecast and monitor the dynamics of HIV/AIDS prevalence rates in Ghana. The study sampled four sites in Upper East Region and explored them with these algorithms. Even though there were many Monte Carlo algorithms, the study discovered that the independence Metropolis - Hastings’ were the most suitable and appropriate for this mathematical forecasting and monitoring. We therefore, recommended for the continuous and extensive use of these algorithms in immunological s urveys to help modify the continuous use of prevalence rates.