DEVELOPMENT OF MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO PREDICT THE TRANSPORT OF E.COLI IN A NATURAL POND

Development of mathematical model to predict the rate of microbial depositions (E.coli) in a natural pond has been carried out. The models were developed to monitor the rate of concentration at different periods, with respect to the length of the pond at various sample station. Results of the theoretical values were compared with the experimental analysis. The analysis was thoroughly done to determine the physiochemical parameters of the pond. Microbial traces were found from the experimental analysis at different periods up to hundred days. The developed model compared favourably well with the experimental values. The values explain the rate of microbial growth and level of lag phase condition. The growth rate of the microbes were found to be higher because there is high deposition of substrate for growth and energy, while at some periods it degrades showing that the substrates have reduced in concentration including the inhibition from the pH. In some cases when the microbes developed lag phase condition it may be as a result of other environmental factors. Finally, the growth rates are between fifty and hundred days, showing that there is constant regeneration of the microbes including other environmental factors. This condition calls for regulation of waste dump at the study location. This will reduce the concentration of the microbes. The pollution that deposited at the pond should be remediated to prevent the death rate of aquatic habitat that may not favour some marine habitats. The pollution will reduce the surface water pH and cause more harm to the marine habitats.