DEVELOPMENT OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS PREDICTION MODELS AT RURAL HIGHWAYS IN EGYPT

The purpose of this study is to investigate traffic accidents causes and to develop statistical predictive models for traffic accidents on the agriculture highways in Egypt; Kafr-el-sheikh Governorate as a case study. Accidents models help decision makers to develop the road network to be safer and minimize the accidents rate. Models we re calibrated using accidents records data collected from five agriculture highways. These highways were divided in two different types of roads sections, namely; agriculture roads with undivided section and agriculture roads with divided section. Simple and multiple regression analysis ha ve been used to find the effect of each parameter on the accidents rate. The results indicated that both the pavement width for one direction and the running speed have highest effects on traffic accidents rate.