Twittering Public Sentiments: A Predictive Analysis of Pre-Poll Twitter Popularity of Prime Ministerial Candidates for the Indian Elections 2014
Journal: Media Watch (Vol.6, No. 2)Publication Date: 2015-05-01
Authors : KALYANI SURESH; CHITRA RAMAKRISHNAN;
Page : 238-254
Keywords : Twitter analytics; Indian elections 2014; Modi; Kejriwal; Rahul Gandhi; sentiment analysis; twitter engagement rate;
Abstract
Twitter is a useful tool for predicting election outcomes, effectively complementing traditional opinion polling. This study undertakes a volume, sentiment and engagement analysis for predicting the popularity of Prime Ministerial candidates on Twitter as a run-up to the Indian Elections 2014. The results from a survey of 2,37,639 pre-poll tweets finds tweet volume as a significant predictor of candidate vote share, and volume and sentiments as predictors for candidate engagement levels. Higher engagement rates evolve from the horizontality of conversations about the candidate, therefore indicating a high degree of interactivity, but do not translate into a higher vote share.
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