FOREIGN TRADE OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS: CURRENT TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT FACTORS

The article looks into the development of the current foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus. The aim of the study is to define the current trends and factors of development of the country’s foreign trade. The main research methods are analysis and design, comparative economic analysis as well as economic and statistical methods. The results of foreign trade are analyzed in terms of visible and invisible trade. The analysis of foreign trade in goods is carried out in commodity groups according to the aim of their usage, in terms of the major groups of foreign economic activity classification of goods and their types. Geographic and country structure of exports and imports is assessed. The key trends of the development of foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus in 2014 are revealed. It is proved that exceedance of the pace of reduction in the import of goods over the decline in their export as well as surplus in trade in services have allowed to achieve more stable balance of the country’s foreign trade. It is defined that foreign trade of the country is still characterized by low degree of geographical and commodity diversification, ineffective allocation of export and import flows among countries and regions in terms of the major commodity groups, low pace of the dynamics of structural changes. The study reveals the decrease in the exports of a number of branches of manufacturing industry. The domineering factors of the formation of current trends of the country’s foreign trade development are defined. They are reduction of the overseas demand as a result of slowdown of the growth rate in the major trade partners, the decrease in the exchange rates of their national currencies, primarily the Russian rouble, as well as the increase in the real exchange rate of the Belarusian rouble. The conclusion is made that improvement of the effectiveness of foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus demands substantial transformation of export and import flows on the ground of structural adjustment. High degree of trade integration with Russia specifies synchronization of the rates of reduction of the national currency exchange rate, primarily with the currency of the Russian Federation and other key trade partners of the country. The obtained results can be applied in the context of development of foreign trade, exchange rate and structural policy of the Republic of Belarus.