THE ESTIMATION OF TURKEY’S EXPORTVALUES TO ALBANIA FOR FIBREBOARD BY THE TIME SERIES METHOD

In this study, it is aimed that the analysis of Turkey’s export values to Albania for fibreboard with Box-Jenkins forecasting techniques which has an important role in the time series analysis and the best suitable time series model for values of export was determined. The data used in this study were obtained from Turkey Statistical Institute (TSI) and monthly data covering the period of January 2007 and December 2015. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test is used to the stationarity test. Temporary model which have significant parameters and the minimum values of akaike information criterion (AIC) and schwartz information criterion (SIC) was determined. Model which is suitable (whether plot of autocorrelation has white noise) was determined by using the Box-Ljung test. As a result, ARIMA(2,1,3) model was found as the best forecasting model.