JUSTIFICATION SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF LEVEL OCCUPATIONAL RISK

The issue of safe working conditions, prevention of occupational injuries and occupational diseases in manufacturing were, are and should remain one of the most important and relevant to any enterprise, regardless of ownership, size of enterprises and number of employees. Condition of occupational safety remains important and topical in Ukraine. Increased attention to safety problems due to the fact that, despite the measures taken at national level, employers of occupational accidents in general in the country remains high. One of the most visible indicators of this problem is the statistics of occupational injuries. Despite some positive developments, including the reduction of the total number of cases of occupational injuries in recent years, the level of fatal accidents in Ukraine remains one of the highest compared with European countries. According to foreign experts who worked on the program of the ILO in Ukraine, a large number of accidents with fatalities due inadequate training workers and employers on health and lack of proper monitoring of workplace safety and compliance with established standards. Absolute numbers of occupational injuries, as primary indicators describing working conditions in the enterprise, industry or region, obtained by mixing and compilation of enterprises. However, the absolute figure alone does not always give the correct assessment of occupational risk. At the same time, as the number of insured to date is an actual number of employees, it allows you to move relative to the use of indicators that are the basis for comparison of different objects monitoring. As the same estimates used to determine the corrective management actions using absolute increase from the previous year. Go to the ratios allows the first stage as the indicators for monitoring improvement of safety ratios to choose the frequency of occupational injuries per thousand employees. Enough universal character representation of long-term prognosis accident risk (the risk of an accident with fatal consequences) as an exponential equation to determine the trend for short-term (1 ? 2 years) prediction of occupational risk for initial data that correspond to the same parameters for the last 5 ? 7 years. As for linear dependencies enough statistical data for the past 5 ? 7 years, this forecast could be used for the third level of management monitoring safety, ie the level of manufacturing enterprises. As a result, so by models for the leading industrial associations Kharkiv, as they determine the level of occupational risk in the region. The initial data to develop a method of short-term forecasting of labor protection used statistics that characterize injuries production in Ukraine in Kharkiv region and some enterprises for 2009 ? 2013. Shown that short-term forecasting of occupational risk at the national, regional and site level it is advisable to use a linear model. It was determined that the use of predictive models allows comparative analysis undertaken preventive measures for the short and longer periods.