AN ESTIMATION OF POPULATION REPLACEMENT PROSPECTS IN UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

The article presents a comparative statistical analysis of change the model of fertility and the survival regime population in Ukraine and some Eastern Europe countries. The scenarios of medium-term forecasts the demographic behavior of Ukrainian population has been carried out. The results of statistical modeling the characteristics of natural population replacement allow to estimate the character of possible changes and also to correct strategy of state demographic policy in Ukraine.