Selection of the Reconstruction Options for Industrial Power Supply System under Uncertainty Conditions on the Basis of the Game Theory Criteria

Research objective: The reliable power supply at a reasonable cost is a fundamental for the development of any country. Special attention should be paid to the power supply system of industrial enterprises. In the designing, the operation and the mode planning of this systems it is required to account not only the power supply reliability, but also the risks associated with operation interruptions. The task of risk assesment is complicated because of such characteristic feature of industrial power supply system as the uncertainty of information of possible emergency modes, operational loads, etc. Methods. The combination of two methods: the sequential network reduction and the Newton’s method is proposed for the calculation of equivalent reliability indices of complex systems. On the basis of reliability calculation the damage from power supply interruption is determined. The game theory criteria are proposed to use for the decision making in case of uncertainty. The Wald, Minimin, Hurwicz, Bayes, Hodge-Lehmann, Savage, Laplace, Multiplication, Germeier- Hurwitz criteria are calculated and analyzed. Scientific novelty and practical significance. Proposed algorithm for reliability evaluation allows to determine the probability of no-failure, failure intensity and recovery time. The algorithm can be used to evaluate the reliability of an existing distribution system and to provide useful planning information regarding improvements to existing systems and the design of new distribution systems. This algorithm within the PC “KATRAN” is implemented in the exploitation at the Iron and Steel Works in Russia. Application of game theory criteria allows toselect the optimal strategy for the power supply system development and to compare the different variants of normal and repair maintenance schemes of network in uncertainty conditions.