FUZZY MATHEMATICAL MODELLING IN ECONOMICS OF AN INNOVATIVE CHEMICAL PROJECT BY SIMPLEX OPTIMIZATION OF MIXTURES

The model of the best ratio of factors (criteria) where x1 is the product price, x2 is the discount rate "r", and x3 is the number of years of a project life "k" for the net present value(NPV) and the return on capital of the innovative chemical project. The presented model makes it possible to formulate a fuzzy set {A = the best value of NPV/ return on capital} if it is possible to influence the factors x1, x2 and x3, as well as any fuzzy sets {A = the best value of NPV/ return on capital} in a case if the product price change, the discount rate or the number of years of the innovative chemical project "Copolymer +" life did not dependent on activities of an innovation owner. Each cost was expressed as a triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy set instead of single-value initial data. The final result was also obtained in the form of a triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy set which gives a wide range of information about possible options. In order to optimize the search for the best set of factors for the innovative chemical project which make the best value of net present value and return on capital, a simplex-lattice design was used. Simplex optimization for three-component models with visualization of the results in the form of an isoline map, with support for designs of 2, 3, 3.5 and 4 orders was used. Keywords: mathematical modeling in economics, net present value, capital return, uncertainty, fuzzy sets, innovative chemical project, simplex optimization.