Development of Statistical Model for Pre-Harvest Yield Prediction of Kharif Groundnut in Rajkot District of Gujarat State

Crop production and productivity depend on climate in general and weather in particular. The productivity of the crop depends on soil characteristics and weather conditions during season. The present study of forecasting groundnut yield for Rajkot district based on weekly average data of weather parameters like maximum and minimum temperature, morning and afternoon relative humidity, sunshine hours and past year total rainfall over a period of 35 years (1976-2010) for Rajkot district. The approach used for forecasting yield was original weather variables and week wise approach. The time trend was include as an explanatory variable. For this district, the model of 14 weeks period (week wise approach) was selected. The model for Rajkot district can be used for providing pre-harvest forecast four weeks before expected harvest. The result of the study shows that model selected for Rajkot district for pre-harvest forecast explain more than 75 percent variation.