Modelación dinámica de la llegada trimestral de turistas Estadounidenses a México

The aim of this paper is to identify the economic factors that determine the arrivals of North American tourists to Mexico from a multi-ecuational and dynamic perspective. In particular, long-term relationships and impacts of disposable income, trade value between the two countries and relative prices in the arrival of tourists to Mexico are established. The use of a vector autoregression model (VAR) is proposed, the model allows the identification of causal relationships and the forecasting of the quarterly demand of tourists to Mexico for the period 1996-2011. The proposed VAR model accuracy was contrasted against Naïve and SARIMA models.