Foresight as an Innovative Tool for Designing Tourist DestinationsJournal: ARA: Journal of Tourism Research (Vol.3, No. 2)
Publication Date: 2012-12-14
Authors : José Miguel Fernández Güell;
Page : 161-170
Keywords : Future Studies; Foresight; Tourism Demand; Destination Design; Uncertainty;
Foresight is a relatively new field of study which initially arose to make provisions for the future in science and technology, but nowadays it is increasingly being used in territorial issues. Although the use of foresight tools in the tourism realm has been limited, there is a growing need to manage the increasing uncertainty that surrounds tourism development. Based on these premises, this paper tries to prove the capability of foresight tools to anticipate the impacts of complex global challenges on the tourism field. This assumption is tested through a future vision exercise which explores the evolution of tourism demand segments and its implications in planning tourism destinations. Two major demand segments are visualised for the year 2020 horizon: “Niche and Innovative Demand” and “Massive and Predictable Demand”. For both segments, the tourism consumption chain value is displayed and spatial design guidelines are recommended for sun and beach destinations.
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