Studying the Determinants of Divortiality in Iraq. A Two-Stage Estimation Model with Tobit Regression

In this article, we are trying to determine the threshold point for the social phenomenon of divorce, through a two-stage estimation model (Heckman). In order to obtain consistent estimates, the censoring threshold in divorce is zero. The Tobit regression maximum likelihood estimator under zero censoring threshold produces inconsistent parameter estimates when the constant censoring threshold is non-zero and unknown. The recording of a zero rather than the actual censoring threshold value is typical of economic data. The difficulty is the determination of the threshold point in economic and social research and other phenomena where the limited dependent variable. As in the last years, divorce has become a wide-spread phenomenon in Iraq, affecting families and community. The present study aims to determine the factors that affect divorce decision. This being the first objective of the study, the second objective of the study is to determine the variables influencing divorce rates at individual level and to diagnose the factors clearly contributing to the increase of divorce cases.