An Investigation into Bullwhip Effect in 3-stage Milk and its Products supply chain and the Application of System Models for Estimating the Demand

Milk and its Products Supply chain is one of the most important chains of agricultural products. One of the most important phenomena at the supply chains is Bullwhip effect. In this study, it has been tried to analyze Bullwhip effect using time series data for the years 1995- 2015, Almost Ideal Demand System and moving average method. One of the main reasons of this effect, is the lack of accurate and in-time information of the demand in different levels of the supply chain as well as long lead times. The results show the existence of Bullwhip effect at the supply chain of Pegah products in Kerman city. Bullwhip effect of milk, yoghurt, cheese, cream and dough is 2.50, 2.51, 2.52, 2.79 and 2.51, respectively. Accordingly, if information of actors of the supply Chain of products demand, be careful, this will lead to more targeted programs and the efficiency of the supply chain as well.