South Asia Nuclear Deterrence Beyond 2016: Challenges and Future Prospects

The rising tide of Hindu nationalism in India has profoundly affected the South Asian strategic stability as the BJP led government is both reviewing Indian nuclear doctrine and posture. Recent statements of Indian defence and government officials indicate that India is inclined to adapt a pre-emptive nuclear posture against Pakistan which is both dangerous and disastrous. Several issues between India and Pakistan, notably Kashmir, remain unresolved which pose even more dangers to the existing deterrence equation between the two countries. Any change to the existing nuclear doctrine by India would only increase the risks of nuclear war in South Asia. Therefore, under prevailing circumstances there is a dire need for confidence building measures between Indian and Pakistan besides devising a mechanism for conflict resolution for which the international community must play itspart.