An Investigation of Epistemic Uncertainties on Bridge Columns Designed for P-Delta Effects Using Caltrans SDC

Structural design inherently includes many sources of uncertainty including loading and load-carrying parameters. P-Delta effects can have a detrimental impact on the seismic response of RC bridge columns. Caltrans SDC provides a procedure that can be used to evaluate whether P-Delta effects can be neglected in design. This research intends to study the impact of the material uncertainties on the structural response of an RC bridge column. Monte Carlo simulation is performed on an RC bridge column which complies with the Caltrans SDC requirements for neglecting the P-Delta effects. The material properties are considered as random variables with bias factors and coefficients of variation obtained from literature review. The correlation coefficient matrix for random variables is computed, and variables with the most impact on ductility of the column are identified. The maximum ductility obtained from Monte Carlo simulation is compared with the target design ductility provided by the Caltrans SDC.