APPLICATION OF FUZZY SETS TO EVALUATION OF INVESTMENT RISK OF THE ENTERPRISE

The generalization of the scientific research devoted to the assessment and forecasting of investment risks in conditions of uncertainty, led to the conclusion that it is advisable to use the theory of fuzzy sets characterized by continuous membership functions. Thus, it is possible even in conditions of information incompleteness to present a pessimistic most probable estimate and an optimistic estimate of the indicators as a fuzzy set and forecast the risks of inefficiency of the investment project depending on the set constraints. The article suggests a model for estimating the expected risk using the asymmetric Gaussian membership function, which expands the possibilities of the practical use of the model. The dependencies of the risk function on the parameters characterizing the investment project for two cases of the relative location of the membership functions characterizing the investigated indicator and its boundary values have been obtained. The results of risk calculation have been presented depending on the initial data and boundary conditions established by the project developers. The index of profitability of investments has been chosen as the researched indicator. The advantages and disadvantages of using the Gaussian membership function have been discussed. It has been concluded that a detailed study of the dependence of the risk function on the cutoff level is necessary in order to choose its optimal value, and also to consider all the six cases of the relative location of membership functions. The obtained model allows analyzing possible scenarios of the investment process from the point of view of risk, as well as making informed managerial decisions on the feasibility of the project implementation.