THE ASSESSMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOREIGN TRADE RELATIONS OF RUSSIA BASED ON THE COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

The methods of cointegration analysis and the Vector error correction model (VECM) were used in the study of the peculiarities of Russian foreign economic relations with the main partner countries in the sectoral context. As a result of the research, reliable models of cointegration interrelations were obtained, which allowed us to reveal certain patterns of trade development of the selected group of countries. The obtained cointegrating coefficients made it possible to estimate the speed of recovery of trade links that were disrupted due to external influences. This information about the resistance of international trade ties is important for economic analysis and forecasting.