A Study of Overconfidence Behavior Patterns Based on Risk Game Theory Perspective

Behavioral finance is a relatively new field in finance theory. In economic downturns, people might make more effort on their own wealth management. People always want to be rich with speculation instead of working hard so gambling is the easiest way to get rich. However, gambling is still developing and becomes legalized. We also found that people really like gambling activities, such as lottery, sport lottery, mahjong etc. Through the wide variety of gambling activities, we might find out some specific human behaviors which will affect individual's decision-making, even the investment decision-making. These behaviors may bring good or bad results. Overconfidence always make people disregard the risk factors when making a decision. Few people will consider the long term effect of that behaviors. Hence, the results would be difficult to expect. This research focused on gambling to define the effects when risk enthusiasts were in an overconfidence/underconfidence status. Under the same circumstance, we can compare the difference between overconfidence status or underconfidence status in order to analyze the procedures of decision-making.