SIMULATION MODEL OF THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF FOREST FIRES TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ANTHROPOGENIC LOAD

Every year the number of forest fires considerably increases and along with this also increase the burned-out areas of forests. The main tasks of fire protection of forests are prevention of forest fires, optimum suppression and elimination of their consequences. Important aspects from the point of view of fire prevention are technologies and methods of prognostication. Basic methods of mathematical research of the probability of occurrence of forest fires are considered in this article. It is find out that the scientific researches related to the mathematical modeling of the probability of occurrence of fires taking into account thunderstorm activity and anthropogenic load have mainly applied value and are aimed at providing of fire safety of forests and elimination of the landscape fires. Creation of mathematical model and methods of solving of a task of optimization of fire safety system using simulation modeling is considered. After investigation of the numerical data and after analysis of results of computing experiment it is possible to say that if thunderstorm activity will remain at the same (high) level and the level of influence of the anthropogenous factor will be reduced from 0.95 to 0.55, the area of forest fires will be reduced nearly by 10 times. In this regard it is possible to conclude that researches which purpose is optimization of mathematical model and software package for monitoring and prognosis the occurrence of wildfires on the basis of simulation modeling are relevant.