Revisit Exports-Growth Nexus in Turkey

The aim of this paper is to investigate exports and economic growth causality in Turkish economies. In this sense, we employed seasonally adjusted quarterly data of economic growth (real GDP) rate and exports that cover 1987Q1-2018Q4 periods. We analyze the relationship between variables by taking into account standard bootstrap Granger non-causality test and fixed-size rolling-window estimation approach. Standard Granger causality test indicates one direction causality that running from exports to real GDP. But according to test of parameters constancy, conducted VAR model points to parameters instability both in the short and long-run periods. Parameters constancy test indicate that empirical results are not uniform for different sample periods and vary due to structural changes. Consideringly, under parameters inconstancy, results of rolling window estimation method indicate that there is positive two way Granger causality (predictive power) between variables from the early 1990s to end of 2018 periods.