Tunisia's Accession the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA): Determinants of Exports and Estimating Trade Potential

— Tunisia has just joined the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) on July 18, 2018. Tunisia has joined the 19 African countries that have signed a free trade agreement since 1994. The purpose of this article is to explain the determinants of exports and to estimate the trade potential between Tunisia and COMESA member states. To achieve this, we conduct an econometric study using the gravity model to identify the determinants of exports. We will use the results obtained to estimate the trade potential. We have shown the existence of trade potential between Tunisia and 10 COMESA countries namely: Malawi, Zimbabwe, Eritrea, Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Swaziland, Burundi, Libya and Egypt. We have also revealed that GDP, GDP per capita, geographical proximity, the lowering of tariff barriers and the sharing of linguistic and historical links, make it possible to boost Tunisian exports to these countries. We therefore recommend that Tunisia, should comply with the legal, political and commercial provisions in order to successfully complete the process of its integration of this market.