DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF LIQUIDATORS OF CONSEQUENCES OF THE CHERNOBYL DISASTER AND PREDICTION OF THE INCIDENCE OF LEUKOSIS

Background. Changes in the size and age structure of the cohort of liquidators registered in the State Register may affect the incidence rate in the future. Objective. The study of age-related and quantitative changes in the cohort of liquidators and forecasting the number of cases of leukemia in it for the period up to 2030. Material and methods. A population-based epidemiological study based on regression analysis of State Register and Cancer Register data. Results. The study showed a signifcant drop-out in the number of the liquidators of the follow-up and their aging. By 2030, it is expected that the number of registered people will decrease by 1.84 times to 27 574 people, the median age will increase to 71 years in 2030. By 2030, the number of cases of leukemia in this cohort will not decrease and will be about 13 cases in 2030, and in 2025 even grow to 16. Conclusions. A decrease in the number of cases of leukemia in liquidators is not expected.