A Study on Influence Factor & Peak Value of Province Area in Developed Urban Agglomeration—Based on Tapio Decoupling & Panel Data Lag Tool

The carbon emission of developed urban agglomeration in China is weak decoupling, its influence factors of seven provinces/cities in developed urban agglomeration are revealed by panel data lag tool which including industrial structure optimization, energy structure adjust and education level. The result shows that there do exist an environmental Kuznets inverse U curve between seven provinces/cities average per person GDP and carbon emission. There is an offset effect of industrial structure optimization to carbon emission: industrial structure promotion increase the carbon emission while industrial structure rationalization decrease it. Energy structure increase the carbon emission while education level decrease it. Hebei province is the key role in control the carbon emission and its peak value as Hebei has fastest growth carbon emission in seven provinces/cities.