ESTABLISHING AND EVALUATING THE ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF URINARY TRACT INFECTION AFTER UPPER URINARY CALCULI SURGERY

Objective:To establish and evaluate the artificial neural network (ANN) model for the prediction of urinary tract infection after upper urinary calculi surgery. Methods: A total of 350 patients with upper urinary tract stones were collected and divided into training group (n=280) and test group (n=70) according to the proportion of 4:1.The logistic regression (LR) model wasused to screen the data by multivariate analysis. Factors with statistically significant would be screened out to establish the LR model and artificial neural network (ANN) model.Receivers operation curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the predictive effect of the model. Results: A total of 29 cases (10.36%) developed postoperative urinary tract infections. Further analysis by logistic regression revealed that the following indicators were independent risk factors for urinary tract infection after upper urinary calculi surgery: infectious stones (OR=3.58, 95%CI=2.04-4.87 p<0.001), operation time (OR=1.51, 95%CI=1.11-2.06 p=0.01), preoperative urine white blood cells and nitrite are both positive (uWBC+NIT+) (OR=1.97, 95%CI=1.55-2.76 p=0.005) , female patients (OR=1.55, 95%CI=1.03-2.35 p=0.04), preoperative positive urine culture (OR=1.33, 95%CI=1.20-1.73 p=0.03) and calculus with polyp encapsulation(OR=1.11, 95%CI=1.05-1.21 p=0.03). Furthermore, we have successfully established the ANN model for the predicting of urinary tract infection after upper urinary calculi surgery. When compared ANN model to LR model for the accurate of prediction by 70 patients in the test group, the accurateof prediction were 78.92% (LR) and 88.69% (ANN), respectively. Moreover, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of ANN model was greater than the LR model (0.93±0.02vs0.74±0.05, p<0.01). Conclusion: The established ANN model owned highly effectiveness and accuracy in the predicting of urinary tract infection after upper urinary calculi surgery.