METHODICAL INSTRUMENTS OF ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF GRAIN PRODUCTION

In the article is reflected theoretical — methodical and applied aspects of realization of analysis of grain production, the system of interrelated indexes that will represent efficiency of production of grain most objectively is reasonable, methodical going near to forecasting the grain production. The efficiency of grain production is to optimize the yield of high quality products from each hectare of land in value terms at a rational cost of all resources per unit of output and maintaining the natural ecological balance. Analytical tools are used to assess the efficiency of grain production, identify patterns and trends in its development in order to improve the efficiency of information and analytical support for grain management. Considering the peculiarities of grain production, it is established that a necessary condition for conducting an analytical study is the formation of a quality system of interconnected and mutually agreed indicators of grain production. Obtaining reliable results of the analysis of grain production is achieved through the use of systematic and integrated approaches to this issue. The methodological basis for forecasting grain production is the theory of development of the object, which reveals the essence of the laws, the main causal relationships of the phenomenon under study. Methodical forecasting tools are used to study the causal links between competitive factors and the system of their reverse influence on the formation of strategies for effective development of grain production, the degree of influence of specific patterns on the research process, presentation of grain forecasting as a dynamic system and reproduction of this system in the future. with a certain degree of probability.