Time Series Modeling of Determinants of Road Accident Mortalities in Rwanda: A Case of Kigali City

Despite the stringent measures that Rwanda government has instituted to ensure safety in our roads and reduce accidents, there is still an upward trend in the number of road accident occurrences in Rwanda. The general purpose of this study was to model road accident mortalities in Rwanda. Specifically to assess the influence of nature of road on road accidents mortalities in Rwanda, to determine the influence of nature of vehicle on road accident mortalities in Rwanda, to analyze the influence of drivers condition on road accident mortalities in Rwanda and lastly to compare poison regression and negative binomial regression in modeling road accident mortalities in Rwanda. Time series data for a period of 10 years ranging from 2008 to 2017 was utilized in this research. The study adopted descriptive quantitative design approach. Moreover it�s also more of an explanatory research design. Data was sourced from Rwanda National Police and WHO database and NISR Statistical Yearbooks. The researcher analyzed the data using Eviews and R software after which the results were presented in form of tables and graphs. The findings indicated that nature of road, nature of vehicle and drivers� condition have a positive significant influence on road accident mortalities in Rwanda. Driver�s condition was the most cause of road accident mortalities in Rwanda within the study period. Further, the Negative binomial is superior to Poisson regression in modeling road accidents in Rwanda. The study recommends that the government should give much focus to driver�s conditions in order to reduce road accidents in Rwanda. Moreover, more traffic to be deployed in roads near residential and commercial places in addition to enhancing control department to conduct thorough check on all vehicles to ensure vehicles on the roads are in good condition. This research is of essential benefit to the Rwandan government and the various road users since they are able to know the critical factors that contribute to the persistent rise in road accidents hence able to take caution in order to reverse the trend of road accidents in Rwanda.