Forecasting Pakistan’s Exports to SAARC: An Application of Univiriate ARIMA Model?Journal: Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business Research (Vol.1, No. 3)
Publication Date: 2012-12-01
Authors : Shafaqat Mehmood;
Page : 96-110
Keywords : ARIMA model; Box-Jenkins methodology; SAARC; Pakistan; Exports; Forecasting.;
This study made an attempt to forecast the Pakistan’s exports to SAARC for a few coming years. Box and Jenkins (1976) methodology of univiriate ARIMA model has been selected as an appropriate econometrics model. This study found ARIMA (1,1,4) as most appropriate model among other ARIMA models to forecast Pakistan’s exports to SAARC. Present study rejected null hypothesis and it has been concluded that in a few coming years, exports from Pakistan to SAARC region will be increased. Pakistan’s exports to SAARC will increase in coming years on an average of 27630 Million Rupee per year. So, the government of Pakistan should invest into those sectors in which Pakistan has export potential to the SAARC countries.
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