UKRAINE’S TRADE UNDER THE DCFTA: A GRAVITY MODEL

The article analyses the trade performance of Ukraine under the Deep and Com­prehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). The practical results of the application of the DCFTA provisions on Ukraine's exports to the EU are presented and compares the results of a gravity model with actual trade to determine whether Ukraine's exports to the EU under the DCFTA have performed as expected. The findings follow with both traditional economic theory and ex ante models that expected a significant increase in exports overall and above normal trade growth and yet the reality has shown the contrary suggesting such ex ante modelling is not relevant or accurate for policy makers negotiating such agreements.