IMPROVEMENT OF THE SHIP LIFE CYCLE COSTING MODELJournal: TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT (Vol.1, No. 8)
Publication Date: 2021-02-24
Authors : O.M. Shumylo; O.I. Rossomakha; A.V. Shakhov;
Page : 113-124
Keywords : lifecycle cost model; acceptable risk; Monte Carlo method;
Introduction. As a rule, the life cycle model is used for determining ship cost to increase the operation efficiency. This model is necessary in solving a wide range of issues. However, the uncertainty of the model parameters is very high due to the long period of the lifecycle. It leads to significant errors in calculating the total cost. The introduced article is aimed at improving the lifecycle cost (LСC) model of the vessel based on the use of risk management methodology. The purpose of the research is to improve the model of determining the lifecycle cost of vessels by means of the risk analysis methods. Results. The solution associated with significant errors in calculating the total cost of lifecycle by the risk theory has been highlighted. The risk assessment is based on the objective evidence. This information finds the methods to handle the risk. One or more methods of varying difficulty can be used to provide the detailed risk assessment. The assessment form and its initial data must be compatible with the risk criteria established in determining the scope. When choosing a risk assessment method, keep in mind that the method must meet many criteria. In addition, two approaches of using the risk theory have been analyzed. They are establishing the value of acceptable total risk or using the Monte Carlo method to transform uncertainty for conventional analytical models and calculating probabilities if analytical methods cannot be used. Conclusions. The paper proposes the model for determining the cost of the ship lifecycle, taking into account the analysis of risks that affect its components.
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