MODELS FOR THE PROGNOSIS OF THE PROGRESSIVE COURSE OF CHRONIC GLOMERULOPATHIES IN CHILDREN

Background. The study of the rate of progression, the identification of the most significant risk factors for the unfavorable course of chronic glomerulopathies (GP) for the implementation of preventive measures is an important research area. Purpose of the study. Development of mathematical models for the short-term prognosis of the progression of primary and secondary chronic GP in children. Material and methods. A comprehensive examination was carried out of 88 patients with secondary, 188 with primary morphologically verified GP, who were under observation in the center of pediatric nephrology and renal replacement therapy "2nd Children's Hospital" Minsk. Results. Anamnestic, clinical, laboratory, instrumental and morphological data were analyzed with the subsequent determination of the most significant factors associated with progression. Mathematical models have been developed for the short-term prognosis of the progressive course of primary and secondary GP in children. Conclusions. The most significant factors associated with a three-year risk of predicting the progression of primary (impaired renal function at the onset of the disease and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <87 ml/min/1.73 m2) and secondary (perinatal factors of kidney damage, recurrent course of the disease, persistent nephrotic proteinuria, decreased GFR at the onset of the disease) GP in children. With the help of prognostic models, threshold values were calculated and classification schemes were created, which enable to calculate the patient's belonging to the risk group of a progressive course based on the calculation of points for timely correction.