DETERMINISTIC-PROBABILITY EVALUATION METHOD OF THE AVERAGE TECHNICAL SPEED OF AUTO AND ARMORED TECHNICS

The functioning of military parts and units involves the widespread using of auto and armored technics (hereinafter - AAT). The machines are providing timely delivery personnel, weapons, ammunition, and other material and technical stuff for all types of supply without exception more than 80%. However, we have the situation that existing methods of operational and tactical calculations of the march do not fit the requirements for accuracy and speed of obtaining time indicators of the duration of columns movement, groups or single machines in relation to the planning of AAT exploitation. This is expressed in the presence of a large number of calculations in operational-combat, operational-service and other planning documents of the border protection and in matters relating to the use of reserves, response group, border patrols and more. That was find out due to the results of studying the materials of service investigations, interviewing officers of the headquarters of the numerous border detachments about cases of non-compliance with time indicators calculated according to the existing methods of operational and tactical calculations during complex, targeted, unannounced inspections of units. Comparison of time indicators in the above documents with the real time of reserves arrival showed us their incomplete compliance with the required time indicators and led to the recognition of these units as "limited" ready or "not ready" to performance tasks. In that way, the main reason was not taking into account the influence on time indicators of duration of movement of a number of traction-dynamic, road-soil, natural-climatic and ergonomic factors in the existing methods of marches calculation. The aim of the article is to present an improved method for evaluation the average technical speed of auto and armored technics which included the existing deterministic method and probabilistic approach for forecasting the final realized speed taken into account the traction, structural properties, probabilistic changes of climatic conditions, as well as ergonomic qualities of drivers. For this purpose, we analyzed previous researches of methods and techniques for determining the average speed and average technical speed of AAT. The existing deterministic methodology has been improved as the result. This methods aims to simplify and at the same time increase the accuracy of calculating the real average speeds on the march by taking into account the probabilistic values of speed changes depending on a set of variable factors in the system "driver-machine-environment", rational relations between average speed and specific power for more formal either probable conditions of movement of AAT that will allow to approach more correctly to planning marches of units and movement of separate groups .