THE APPROACH TO SUCCESS PREDICTING OF ANTI-INSURGENCY (STABILIZATION) ACTIONS

The approach to success predicting of stabilization actions (anti-insurgency operations) is presented, which is based on the correlation between two groups of factors – “correct” and “incorrect”, which were obtained with a quantitative analysis of the success of anti-insurgency operations in recent years. Unlike the traditional approach, there is no need to identify the main factors as a key to understanding the reasons for success in the fight against insurgents. At the same time, the necessary condition for the success of such operations is the presence of a positive balance of the “correct” factors.