Trust in Vaccination as a Factor in Public Health During a Pandemic

The article summarizes the arguments in the scientific debate on public trust in vaccination against COVID-19. The main purpose of the research is to model the trend of changes in the trust in vaccination against COVID-19, analyzing time series by exponential smoothing. The object of the study is the public trust in vaccination against COVID-19. The research aims to model the changing trend of the trust in the vaccination against COVID-19 using time series analysis. Systematization of literature sources and approaches to solving the vaccination problem during the pandemic showed that various psychological, social, economic factors, including trust in official information, affect the level of trust in vaccination. Declining confidence in the authorities, medical institutions, social institutions, and the media significantly impacts the effectiveness of pandemic containment measures. The trust of the population in state institutions in scientifically based information on vaccination provides the necessary level of vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study regarding the changing trend in the level of trust in vaccination against COVID-19 analyzing time series by exponential smoothing in the article is carried out in the following logical sequence: 1) Internet users on the issues of “Trust in vaccination against COVID-19”, “Vaccination against COVID-19”, “Trust in vaccination” was carried out using Google Trends; 3) Statistica software package was used to implement exponential smoothing models. Predictive models of exponential smoothing based on the following indicators: “Trust in vaccination against COVID-19”, “Trust in vaccination”, “Vaccination against COVID-19” are constructed. Time series models related to public confidence in COVID-19 vaccination demonstrate the presence of a seasonal component every two weeks. The results of the study can be useful for the development of scientifically sound recommendations to control the vaccination process during a pandemic, to build predictions of the level of trust in vaccination against COVID-19.